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Math 407 Quiz 06-08-03

Name: ___________________________

Problem
We model the price of a stock at the end of month number  k as  \[
     P_k = x_1 * P_{k-1} + x_2 * P_{k-2} + e_k
\] 
where the coefficient vector  x \in \R^2 is unknown. Our goal is to determine the coefficient vector that minimizes the sum of the absolute errors; i.e.,  \[
\sum_{k=3}^5 | e_k |
     = \sum_{k=3}^5 | P_k - x_1 * P_{k-1} - x_2 * P_{k-2} |
\] 
where the vector  P is given by  \[
\begin{array}{rrrrrrr}
k   & 1  & 2  & 3  & 4  & 5  \\
P_k & 11 & 11 & 13 & 14 & 16 
\end{array}
\] 
Determine a matrix  A \in \R^{6 \times 2} , a vector  b \in \R^6 , and a vector  c \in \R^3 such that we can satisfy our goal by finding the solution of the problem  \[
\begin{array}{lcr}
{\rm minimize}       
     & c_1 * z_1 + c_2 * z_2 + c_3 * z_3  
     & {\rm w.r.t.} \; z \in \R^3 , x \in \R^2 \\
{\rm subject \; to}  
     & A_{1,1} * x_1 + A_{1,2} * x_2 - z_1 \leq b_1 \\
     & A_{2,1} * x_1 + A_{2,2} * x_2 - z_1 \leq b_2 \\
     & A_{3,1} * x_1 + A_{3,2} * x_2 - z_2 \leq b_3 \\
     & A_{4,1} * x_1 + A_{4,2} * x_2 - z_2 \leq b_4 \\
     & A_{5,1} * x_1 + A_{5,2} * x_2 - z_3 \leq b_5 \\
     & A_{6,1} * x_1 + A_{6,2} * x_2 - z_3 \leq b_6 
\end{array}
\] 


Hint
If we minimize  z_1 subject to  z_1 \geq e_3 and  z_1 \geq - e_3 the optimal value is  z_1 = | e_3 |

Solution
Using the hint, we want the optimal value of  z_{k-2} to be  | e_k | for  k = 3, 4, 5 ; i.e.,  \[
\begin{array}{rcl}
     z_{k-2} & \geq & P_k - x_1 * P_{k-1} - x_2 * P_{k-2} \\
     z_{k-2} & \geq & - P_k + x_1 * P_{k-1} + x_2 * P_{k-2} 
\end{array}
\] 
Which is equivalent to the following set of inequalities:  \[
\begin{array}{rcl}
     - P_3 & \geq & - x_1 * P_2 - x_2 * P_1 - z_1 \\
       P_3 & \geq & + x_1 * P_2 + x_2 * P_1 - z_1 \\
     - P_4 & \geq & - x_1 * P_3 - x_2 * P_2 - z_2 \\
       P_4 & \geq & + x_1 * P_3 + x_2 * P_2 - z_2 \\
     - P_5 & \geq & - x_1 * P_4 - x_2 * P_3 - z_3 \\
       P_5 & \geq & + x_1 * P_4 + x_2 * P_3 - z_3 
\end{array}
\] 
Thus we obtain the problem above where  \[
b = 
\left(
\begin{array}{r}
- P_3 \\ P_3 \\ - P_4 \\ P_4 \\ - P_5 \\ P_5
\end{array}
\right)

\left(
\begin{array}{r}
- 13 \\ 13 \\ -14 \\ 14 \\ -16 \\ 16
\end{array}
\right)
\; , \;
A = 
\left(
\begin{array}{rr}
- P_2 & - P_1 \\
  P_2 &   P_1 \\
- P_3 & - P_2 \\
  P_3 &   P_2 \\
- P_4 & - P_3 \\
  P_4 &   P_3
\end{array}
\right)
=
\left(
\begin{array}{rr}
- 11 & - 11 \\
  11 &   11 \\
- 13 & - 11 \\
  13 &   11 \\
- 14 & - 13 \\
  14 &   13
\end{array}
\right)
\; , \;
c = \left(
\begin{array}{r}
1 \\ 1 \\ 1 
\end{array}
\right)
\] 
Note that if  c is any vector in  \R^3 with all positive coefficients, the optimal  z satisfies  z_{k-2} = | e_k | for  k = 3, 4, 5 . With all the coefficients of  c equal to one, the optimal objective is equal to  \[
\sum_{k=3}^5 | e_k |
     = \sum_{k=3}^5 | P_k - x_1 * P_{k-1} - x_2 * P_{k-2} |
\] 

Input File: Quiz0803.omh